tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2445702964043538162.post7672038864602044265..comments2011-08-01T12:53:21.238-05:00Comments on Playing the Pros: Original Ottoneu: Trade RecapChadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03432571368116651596noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2445702964043538162.post-51650673312143584352011-05-13T15:11:12.986-05:002011-05-13T15:11:12.986-05:00I think being cautious about the future makes sens...I think being cautious about the future makes sense under those circumstances. I can say without a doubt that the value of prospects has risen in our league over the years. Year one was definitely an experiment; year two it seemed to have legs. By year three, no one was going anywhere and building for a year or two down the line was a legitimate strategy.Chadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03432571368116651596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2445702964043538162.post-78982121813212184752011-05-10T14:07:42.965-05:002011-05-10T14:07:42.965-05:00Should have said "...$2 discount on a AA guy ...Should have said "...$2 discount on a AA guy relative to an equivalent AAA guy...".Zachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01925038824172338977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2445702964043538162.post-77210394082153344862011-05-10T14:05:46.445-05:002011-05-10T14:05:46.445-05:00Thanks for the thoughts Chad. I agree with your s...Thanks for the thoughts Chad. I agree with your strategy of avoiding anyone below AA unless they are top-25 or so. I won't take anyone that I don't expect to be a full-time big leaguer within the next 24 months (which probably gives you roughly the same list as AA and above). And of course, price gets factored in too. I have to get at least a $2 discount on a AA guy relative to an equivalent AA guy, due to both risk and salary inflation.<br /><br />Maybe not for you given the owner quality in your league, but for the rest of us in public leagues there's also the risk that our league will deteriorate due to owner attrition, lack of interest, etc. This has significantly impacted my strategy for holding minor leaguers, as the status of the league in 2013 and beyond is very unclear. If my league shows to have a solid core of owners then I will reevaluate, but I discount the future pretty heavily at present.Zachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01925038824172338977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2445702964043538162.post-90553480893206252862011-05-06T19:01:10.138-05:002011-05-06T19:01:10.138-05:00I like the trade for the Zimmermann portion - but ...I like the trade for the Zimmermann portion - but Archer at $3 doesn't do it for me. Given that he could top out as a reliever, and he's also probably a year or more away...well, he just seems a bit too expensive to really be a viable throw in. Though, to be fair, I don't know how much you could've gotten out of your trade partner in addition to the other stuff you got. Choice is a very nice lottery ticket, and at $1, totally worth rostering for a little while.<br /><br />Good deal, but not one of those ones where the other owners are going to want to punch the other guy in the face. Which, in my opinion, is the best way to go about things.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2445702964043538162.post-91979814812554689832011-05-06T12:54:14.926-05:002011-05-06T12:54:14.926-05:00Once this trade goes down, I will have 11 minor le...Once this trade goes down, I will have 11 minor leaguers on my roster. And that is only cause Sizemore got called up finally. Two others I expected to be up to start the year (Chris Carter, Brandon Allen) and two more I expect to be up at some point (Jason Kipnis, Andy Oliver) with one more maybe getting a cup of coffee (Wilin Rosario).<br /><br />Suffice it to say, 11 is too many. I have limited depth and have not been able to execute the SP/RP combo I typically like to use. I will definitely be exploring trades to swap out prospects for present-day talent. <br /><br />But 50 guys rostered in your league is, I would argue, too few. That means that some very good prospects are out there for the grabbing and once teams start to figure out if they are competing this year or not, they will get gobbled up.<br /><br />As for levels, my basic theory is to avoid guys who are more than two years away completely - so anyone who you don't expect to be up by this time in 2013 is, I think, unownable. Beyond that, I basically will take anyone at any level who is a top 25 prospect, anyone AA or above below that. If you are outside the top 75 or so, you better be ready to contribute this year, even as a role player, if I am going to take a shot at you. That help?Chadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03432571368116651596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2445702964043538162.post-45913747752861816802011-05-06T12:33:45.678-05:002011-05-06T12:33:45.678-05:00I like this deal. I'm not that high on Billin...I like this deal. I'm not that high on Billingsley either, while I am high on Zimmerman. I think you've definitely improved your team for 2012 and beyond. And if you do end up using the prospects you also acquired to get another solid SP, then you're back to where you were for 2011, again with a more solid future.<br /><br />While reading your post, you mention prospects and your "farm system." That got me thinking about the share of your roster you should devote towards building "a farm system." Based on your post, notably your trade partner throwing "a couple of prospects" into the deal, it seems like owners in your league devote a good chunk of their rosters to prospects. In my league, there are somethimg like 50 minor leaguers rostered. What are your thoughts on the optimal roster breakdown between major and minor leaguers, as well as allocation of minor leaguers at various levels (A, AA, AAA, etc.)?<br /><br />I entered the season with only three minor leaguers, each of whom was projected to be in the majors sometime by the end of 2012: Hosmer, Britton, and Trout. As of today, that list has been whittled to one due to earlier-than-anticipated callups.Zachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01925038824172338977noreply@blogger.com