The Creation of ottoneu - Part I

This post is going to be a departure for me, something a bit different than my typical analysis of ottoneu leagues (which will return with another look at Pick Six next week). 


Anyone reading this blog knows about ottoneu as it exists today and likely plays in an ottoneu league. But the birth of the format, which has not been discussed much, will shed quite a bit of light on why ottoneu is what it is. Over the next few weeks or maybe months I am going to try to lay out the story of the creation of ottoneu, the trials of its infancy, its growth and eventually its unveiling. The primary characters of the stories will be Niv (who you know as the man behind ottoneu), Geoff (who you don't know at all but really, really should) and myself (me).

For the man behind ottoneu, Niv Shah, his love affair with baseball starts here and here (or at least takes a big jump forward there). But Niv doesn't even go to that game if I don't make him, and I don't make him if I hadn't been blown away a seemingly normal game on August 13, 1992.

This certainly pre-dates anything directly related to ottoneu, but provides some background on my baseball fandom - which would eventually help nurture Niv's baseball fandom, which made ottoneu possible, thanks to Geoff's stroke of genius. But you'll have to wait a bit to hear about that.

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Every baseball fan has that moment - the one clear moment when they remember falling in love with the game. There are the stories from old timers ("I remember looking through a hole in the fence at the old stadium when Joe DiMaggio came to town and seeing him just tear a ball down the line"); the traditional stories ("Coming out of the concourse and seeing the gorgeous green field and smelling the dirt - it was a religious experience"); the dramatic stories ("Joe Carter. 1993. World Series Winner").

But my story - my baseball moment - is in many ways unremarkable. First of all, this was by no means my first game. I had been to a ton of Indians games over the years. I grew up a huge sports fans with parents who never really understood that passion, but were happy to feed it. I also have an uncle who is a sports fan and lived two doors down from me most of my youth but didn't have a son of his own. Plenty of opportunities to head to games.

But the first one I remember and remember clearly was apparently in 1992. I say apparently because my recollection is that I was about 7 or 8, which would put us in the late '80's, but baseball-reference.com assures me it was in 1992, when I was 10.

Finding the box score for the game was actually not that hard to do, because much of the night I remember accurately. I remember exactly who the starting pitchers were that night. And I remember that it was at night. And I remember I was not in school at the time.

I remember all this because on this particular evening I sat down to dinner with my family, probably around 5:30 and promptly began talking about that night's game. The Red Sox were in town and Roger Clemens was going to be on the mound. As a ten-year-old baseball fan, this was plenty of cause to go to the game.

Actually, as any baseball fan, this was cause to go to the game. In 1992, Clemens put up a 176 ERA+ and would finish 3rd in the Cy Young voting. He had won the Cy Young the year before.

Not that I cited any of this. What I cited in my well thought out argument for going to the game that night was that Clemens, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, one of the best of his generation, a once-in-a-lifetime talent that we had to see was going toe-to-toe that night with the electric, unbeatable, immortal...Charles Nagy.

Now, I don't want to go bashing Charles Nagy. Nagy may not have been Clemens, but it is worth noting that Nagy was a very solid pitcher in his career. From 1991-1999, Nagy put up more than 200 innings six times. He had an ERA+ over 130 three times and was over 100 four more.

But to a ten-year-old Indians fan, what mattered is that he was our ACE. He was only 25 and with Sandy Alomar, Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga, Paul Sorrento, Kenny Lofton, and Jim Thome, he was part of a core offering hope for a team that hadn't had success in 38 years.

And so I wanted to go see what our ace could do against THE ace. In retrospect, it seems kind of silly. No one, even in 1992, was clamoring for a showdown between Nagy and Clemens.

But I was.

My parents relented (this is how I know I was not in school - never would have happened on a school night) and we went down to old Municipal Stadium. At this point in Indians history, we were still in the era of wandering up to the box office and getting whatever tickets you wanted because NO one went to those games. So we showed up no earlier than ten to seven, and probably even closer to opening pitch, and bought tickets. Directly behind home plate.

This is, again, where my recollection and reality don't seem perfectly aligned. I remember two aces - two giants of the pitching world - going head-to-head, matching each other pitch-for-pitch. I remember a pitcher's duel unlike any other.

And that was half right. Both pitchers went 8 innings. Both pitchers K'd 9. Clemens threw 121 pitches, 77 for strikes. Nagy found the zone with 86 of 138 pitches.

But that is where the pitcher's duel ends. Nagy and Clemens gave up 8 hits each and Nagy walked 3 (Clemens only walked 1). And Nagy gave up 4 ER to Clemens' 2. Nagy happened to bunch his walks in the bottom of the 5th (walked two and then intentionally walked Wade Boggs to load the bases with two outs) and the Sox made him pay with back-to-back-to-back singles, driving in all four runs over the course of three hitters. Clemens gave one back in the bottom of that inning on a sac fly and Glenallen Hill (who used to CRUSH the ball) added a HR in the bottom of the 8th, but the four from the 5th held up and the Sox won.

Neither team was particularly good at that point. Actually, both teams were downright bad, a far cry from the Sox and Indians teams that would play until the wee hours of the night in a 1995 Division Series game, and continue to meet in the playoffs multiple times in the '90s and '00s. And the game, as you can see, was not that great a game. But it stuck with me.

I've had a lot of other baseball memories over the years, thanks in large part to the powerful Indians teams that grew out of that young team in '92. Manny Ramirez absolutely crushing a Dennis Eckersley pitch for a game winning grand slam comes to mind (mostly due to Eck clearly mouthing "wow" as he walked off the field). Tony Pena's walk-off in game one of the 1995 Division Series at some ungodly hour in the morning. Kenny Lofton coming around from second on a wild pitch (passed ball?) with Randy Johnson on the mound in the ALCS that year. Omar Vizquel whiffing on a suicide squeeze which somehow resulted in a huge run against the Orioles in the 1997 playoffs.

And, as with any Cleveland fan, not all of those memories are quite so sweet - Charles Nagy coming oh-so-close to fielding Edger Renteria's chopper in game 7 of the '97 World Series. Lofton holding at third against Boston in 2007. Everything that Jaret Wright did after teasing us in 1997.

But one August night in 1992, as a ten-year-old, I went to a decrepit old stadium to see a legend match up with a completely league average pitcher, saw a pretty typical Major League game between two rotten teams far out of the playoff chase, and fell in love with the game.

Original Ottoneu: Trade Recap

After completing my first FanGraphs Experts League trade last week, I followed it up with my first in-season trade of the year in the original ottoneu league. As the other owners in this league can tell you, I LOVE to trade and I am always active in the trade market, either as a buyer or seller. The fact that I have already made one trade and am in talks for one to two more is a surprise to no one.

But this is a somewhat odd trade for me to have made. Around the time I posted this, I began to explore the possibility of parting ways with Chad Billingsley. I actually think he is quite valuable in the 4x4 format and at $28, I do not think he is overpriced for his production, but I received some feedback before and during the season suggesting that most of the other owners would not have paid him that much and that his market value is actually below what I am paying him.With my team falling to last in the standings, he was one of the players I expected to sell before the year was out.

I went through the standings to see who was in a position to compete but struggling with their SP and sent out feeler emails to a few owners, and got a bite. Actually, and this becomes important, I got exactly one bite. Most of the responses I received were tepid at best, ranging from "I'm pretty lukewarm on him" to "Oh no, I hate Billingsley." (To be fair, the latter stemmed from anti-Dodger sentiment more than anything else).

But one owner expressed interest. Over the next couple weeks, talks went slowly and my team bounced around between 12th and 10th. I knew that the other owner was exploring some other deals, including one for Cliff Lee from an owner who I knew was entering full-on sales mode. We started to settle on a deal that would include either Jordan Zimmermann ($5) or Zach Britton ($3) along with a couple prospects. I couldn't get him to bite on sending me Brandon  Belt, but names like Archer, Choice, Segura, Machado, and Arodys Vizcaino were tossed around.

And then something odd happened. His team began to drop, falling from the top 5, while my team started to climb. By the beginning of the week, he and I were bouncing between 7th and 8th, and over the next couple days, I climbed as high as 3rd (for about an hour). But we kept talking and settled on a deal that would send him Billingsley and some cash for Zimmermann, Choice ($1) and Archer ($3).

My situation had changed. On Wednesday, I was in 4th when my hand was forced - the owner I was dealing with proposed the trade and gave me until 5:30 p.m. that evening or he was pulling the deal. I could have called his bluff, but I knew he could get Lee (for a higher price) or 1-2 other pitchers, and this deal really would be off the table.

Looking to the future, I think I got good value here. Zimmermann should develop into a solid starter (I think the k-rate will come back as he continues to recover from surgery), I really like what Choice brings to the table, and I think Archer could be a decent contributor - although I kind of hope he ends up in a relief role, where I think he will have more value for me.

From a 2011 perspective, I think it is clear he got more value. In evaluating this, I'll assume no 2011 value from the prospects: Choice is nowhere near the bigs and Archer seems unlikely to contribute this year either. But even so, I don't think the spread is huge. The rest of season ZiPS projection for Billingsley is 166 IP, 8.46 K/9, .6 HR/9, 3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. For Zimmerman, 82 IP (by far the biggest gap), 7.13 K/9, .88 HR/9, 3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Clearly Billingsley is the better pitcher, or projects to be, but Zimmermann is younger and much cheaper. Plus, I have strengthened my farm system to the point that I may be able to make another deal for a SP.

So the conundrum I was left with was whether to take a forward looking trade that would likely leave me needing to make another deal to get back to a solid rotation for 2011 when I was pushing up towards the money.

And this is where the fact that I got absolutely no other interest in Billingsley factors in. If this other owner made his deals and settled into a rotation he liked, I had no market to move Billingsley later in the year. In the end, I decided the value I expect (hope?) to get from Zimmermann would be enough to keep me afloat until I can figure out something else, and that I had to jump at the pure value of this deal before it disappeared.

It is not every day that you see a team in 4th move a front-line starter to a team in 8th for an unproven youngster and prospects, but I think in this case it was the right move for me. As always, would love to know what you think!

Trade Recap

Sunday evening I completed my first trade of the year in the FanGraphs Experts League. I'll deliver my evaluation here, but what I am really looking for is your feedback - was this a good trade for me to make?

As always, we need to start with some context. In this case, the only real context you need is that the only 3B eligible player on my roster as of right now is Pablo Sandoval who is obviously not going to be of much use to me for a while. I scoured the waiver wire and found pretty sparse options - Brandon Inge, Jamey Carroll, Jorge Cantu, Aaron Miles...Jack Hannahan (who I may actually start an auction on at some point) was probably my best choice, based on current performance.

Unimpressed, I turned to the trade market and found VERY few teams sitting with backup 3B. Injuries to Longoria and Zimmerman surely had something to do with that. I identified basically four candidates - Dyersville Nine had Chipper Jones riding the pine; Eno's Slaughter had Placido Polanco potentially available; and Andy Behrens had David Freese and Chase Headley on the bench.

I spoke with Eno Sarris late in the process re: his roster (he also has Martin Prado, who is 3B eligible) but he confirmed that only Polanco is available and Polanco as a daily 3B is pretty unattractive. Behrens didn't want to talk about David Freese (who subsequently got hurt himself) and asked about $1 OF/MI options for Headley. The only real option I had there was to move Orlando Cabrera or Chris Carter...and Behrens wasn't interested in either.

That left me with just Chipper. I talked to Andy Andres and he inquired on Asdrubal Cabrera. I have Cabrera signed at $6 and he is CLEARLY outperforming that value to date. The .263 BA is not world-beating, but 5 HR and 2 steals looks awfully good from a SS. As an Indians fan, I would love to believe that this start is legit and that Cabrera is about to become a hell of a value at $6, and a player I would be able to hold onto for years. Instead, I think it's just a power surge. Realistic season expectations from Cabrera moving forward? .280 avg, 7 HR, 10 SB. He'll score some runs batting second in a pretty good lineup, but I just don't think Cabrera is going to become a 15 HR, 15 SB guy.

Andy offered to sweeten the deal and gave me a few choices - Dexter Fowler ($12) or Denard Span ($11) to help with speed, Maicer Izturis ($2), Clint Barmes, Jason Bartlett, Alex Gonzalez or Jose Iglesias (all $1) to fill MI now that I am short a Cabrera, or a couple pitchers, who I wasn't at all interested in.

Looking at my roster, I decided I didn't need to pay for Span or Fowler. I am behind on SB and runs, but just got back Rajai Davis, and my OF is reasonably full - Holliday, Pence, Vlad, Davis, Julio Borbon, Alex Rios, Garrett Jones, Carlos Lee and the soon to return Domonic Brown. Lee and Jones have been helping at 1B and Util with Carlos Pena being a disaster, but I just added Todd Helton, which should ease that burden. Regardless, there is not a lot of room to play Span or Fowler.

Instead, I turned to the MI guys, and the one who jumped out at me was Izturis. Honestly, with playing time, I see no reason he can't match Asdrubal. Since 2007, he has played only 61 to 114 games each year, but when he plays, he hits for decent average, shows reasonable pop for a MI and steals bags.

In the end, I felt I had two options - Move Cabrera for Chipper plus on the guys listed above, or leave 3B empty until I can add a replacement level 3B and give up on the year. I am currently in 8th place and it is too early to sit it out, particularly with Brown back soon and Utley hopefully coming back before TOOOO long. So I made the move.

Now, since the deal was accepted, Izturis was scratched from an Angels game and may be headed to the DL, which is a shame. It changes the complexion of the deal for sure, but not to the point that I regret it. Assuming he gets back soon and plays most of the rest of the year, I think I am still better offer with him and Chipper than I was with my alternative. And if Maicer proves worth keeping, I would have him at $4 instead of Cabrera at $8 next year.

But, as I said, what I really want to know is what you think.  So...responses? Should I have made the trade? Should I have just stuck with a free agent?

ottoneu PickSix Strategy

As many of you know, ottoneu just launched a new, daily game called Pick Six. Over the past couple weeks, I have been helping test the new game and basically been throwing together lineups daily. The details on the game are explained quite well by creator Niv Shah, so I won't bore you with repetition. Instead, I will try to offer some strategic insights. 

Here are 6 (naturally) things to think about when picking your Pick Six lineup:

1) Saves are actually quite high value (5 pts, about the same as a hit which is 5.6) and so a perfect inning to close a game earns you at least 10 points (5 for IP, 5 for save) plus 2 pts per K. BUT - holds are worth 4 pts. Which significantly closes the gap between, for example, Heath Bell and Mike Adams. It also means that there is some value in relievers who go more than one inning, which closers almost never do. The point is, don't just jump at the best closer you can afford (or the closer playing the weakest opponent) - there are some very good values out there among non-closing-relievers.

2) Watch the weather forecasts. Well...maybe not...but be aware that a rain out can crush your chances of performing well. With 6 positions all expected to, on average, produce the same value, a rain out costs you about 17% of your points for the day. Take two guys from one team (and this will be tempting when, for example, the Yankees face some terrible 5th starter) and lose that game to rain and you are going to have a pretty awful night. This doesn't mean you should check the weather maps before picking your team (the whole point of Pick Six is that it should be quick and fun and easy), but if you live in Chicago (like me) and know that it is raining (like I did yesterday) and decide to take Tulo (like I did yesterday)...that just isn't smart.

3) Remember that your SP do not get credit for wins. Scared to take Kershaw cause he is facing off against Lincecum? Don't worry about it - the stats he should rack up facing the Giants lineup will be quite nice and even if Timmy throws a perfect game, it doesn't impact you at all (other than the fact that you didn't pick him on the night he threw a perfect game).

4) Beware the platoon. Since lineups lock when the first game of the day starts, you need to be careful about guys who are not everyday players. This is particularly important with catchers who take at least a day off every week. Picking a guy who ends up riding the pine for the night costs you the same 17% as a rain out. 

5) When filling out lineups, think about value guys first. Know you can get an OF you love with a great match-up for $5? Grab him before filling in the other spots. If you can lock in a couple discounted players early (say at CI and OF), when you turn to MI and realize the match-ups aren't great and you have to spend big on Cano or Tulo, you can afford it.

6) The leaderboard shows usernames, and there are a few to keep an eye out for:

• nivshah (@ottoneu) - created and programmed the game
• dooberfig - responsible for the birth of ottoneu six years ago and behind a lot of the math involved in valuing players in Pick Six
• chy924 (@chadyoung) - me, purporting to be an expert, probably not actually an expert

If you happen to see that you beat any of us...well...we have been playing this game for like two weeks now and so we probably deserved to be mocked. So bring it on. We can take it. Right, Niv?

Happy picking!

When to Buy

When I wrote the other day about when to start a fire sale, commenter Zach asked about the flip side of that coin - when to become a buyer. This, I think, is a much more difficult question to answer, as a lot of it depends on what "matters" to you in fantasy baseball, but I am going to try to lay out some criteria just the same.

To start, as with any good model, we need to lay out some assumptions. In this case, I am going to assume that your league is like the original ottoneu league (prizes for the top three finishers) and that you are like me (finishing in the money and bragging rights are your main objectives, but you place a serious premium on finishing first, beyond just the additional cash). I am also quite content to finish dead last if it means putting me in a better position for the following season, and I am similarly happy to doom myself to a dead last finish next year in order to win this year - not everyone will make these trade offs, so you may need to adjust the criteria accordingly.

With that said, here are my three criteria for determining if you should buy.

1) You can't win the league with what you have. It's this first criteria that some people (read: I) tend to ignore.

In 2007, I basically ran away with the original ottoneu league. I led more or less wire-to-wire and had a double-digit lead most of the time. But on August 7, 2007, I made not one but two trades. In total, I added Pat Burrell, Jonathon Broxton, and Brandon Webb in exchange for Ian Snell, Carlos Villanueva, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Gomez, and Matt Murton. Broxton, Burrell and Webb were all way to expensive to keep, at the time, so this was purely a win-now set of moves.

It happens that in this situation I had fortune on my side. In hindsight, we all know that what I gave up amounts to...well...it doesn't amount to anything, really. Dempster would be nice to have, but the rest of those guys really have not been missed at all. But imagine Murton turned into the high OBP, solid OF I expected? Or that Snell didn't fall off a cliff or that Gomez developed... I potentially would be out an awful lot of cheap talent and all I would have to show for it was a title and a check that I would have won even without the trades.

Cheap, young talent is the lifeblood of a successful ottoneu team - don't give it up to secure a victory that was, barring something unforeseen, already secure. You have to be realistic, but when deciding to buy, make sure you are buying something of value - if you can win with what you have, don't mortgage the future.

2) The chance to win is in front of you. When this happens, jump at it. MLB teams rarely get a shot to win a World Series (Yankees and Red Sox notwithstanding) which is why, when the chance arrives, very few prospects are untouchable. In the immortal words of Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game," and you don't pass up that chance to win.

I am currently sitting 4th in the FanGraphs Experts League and have a pretty talented farm system (Hosmer, Montero, Moustakas, Teheran, Lamb). My expectation is that 2012 is my year, since those guys should be producing, and I will still have an inexpensive rotation (Hellickson, Weaver, and Marcum are all cheap enough to keep) and some potential value pieces on offense (Utley, Domonic Brown, Arencibia, etc.). But let's say we roll into June or July or August and I have a shot to win right now. Maybe the lineup I have can't cut it but if I gut my farm system to add a couple pieces, I can take the league. My stance is that I HAVE to go for it. Yes, I am dooming my team to failure in 2012, but I will fail just as badly if Hosmer turns out to be a AAAA guy, Lamb doesn't develop and Hellickson blows out his arm. Why go into 2012 on a gamble if I can make a much safer bet on 2011?

3) There are sellers out there. There is an odd clash between buyers and sellers in ottoneu leagues - the earlier you buy, the better (you give up future value either way, but the difference between four months of an all-star and two months of that same player is huge), and conversely, the later you sell, the better (you maximize the time you have to see if your team can turn it around and compete).

Looking at this from an economic standpoint, to entice a team to sell earlier than they want, you have to compensate them for the option value they would have if they had sold later. Effectively, what this means is that there are ALWAYS sellers, as long as you offer a high enough price.

This is where things come down to personal choice. I believe in buying aggressively when you buy, and if you have to give up one more prospect or a better pair of prospects or something to get a deal done in April or May instead of July or August, you are probably better off paying that price.

But I know that a lot of other owners feel differently - in their minds, it seems, if you are not 100% sure you can win, you should wait to make the trade. The problem I see with this is that the value you need doesn't change, but I think the TOTAL price you have to pay goes up. Yes, you can probably get Albert Pujols for less on July 15 than on May 1. But five months of Pujols is far more valuable and to get the same value on July 15, you probably need to trade for Pujols and another star-level bat. So if you need those five months of value to win the league, your choices are to pay a premium to get Pujols ASAP or pay for Pujols and, for example, Braun, in a couple months. But my guess is that Braun and Pujols on July 15 will cost you more than Pujols alone on May 1 (as long as Pujols owner is willing to sell him on May 1).

Finally, ONLY get that player from an owner who has shown a willingness to sell (even if they are hesitant). If you have to talk an owner who is not considering selling into selling, you will overpay. But, as soon as you get the sense that an owner is ready to move present pieces for future ones...jump on it.

That was all a bit complicated, so let me boil it down to this: if you are a player or two away from winning, you should get that player as early as you possibly can. The longer you wait, the less value you get per trade, the more trades you have to make and the higher the total cost.



So where does that leave you, an owner who thinks you might be a buyer, today? Think realistically about your team - can your team as currently constructed "win" (with win being defined as whatever you want - first place, top three, competitive all year, etc.)? If yes, don't waste future talent for unneeded pieces. If not, consider whether you can win AT ALL. If not, again, don't waste your time buying and chasing an impossible dream. If yes, look around at the market - are there sellers out there? At least people who could reasonably be talked into selling? If no, then hold off - don't go crazy overpaying to convince someone to sell. But if there are is an owner who shows a willingness, however slight, to sell off pieces, consider that a door left ajar and find your way in. You'll get a better return from one big trade today than from needing to make two or three trades in August.

The First Trade

Early this morning, Eno Sarris and Andy Behrens completed the first ever trade in the ottoneu FanGraphs Experts League. It wasn't exactly a blockbuster, but still worth taking a look at, particularly because it nearly included yours truly.

Eno's Slaughter (bet you can guess which guy owns that team) sent Aaron Harang (priced at $1) to Andy Behrens (nothing like eponymous fantasy owners) in exchange for Placido Polanco (also $1).

At first glance, this deal seems to pretty clearly favor Andy - Harang, particularly pitching in Petco, is an awfully valuable piece. He won't anchor your staff (and he may not provide many wins) but he will perform well, help your rates and, if the first three weeks of the year are a signal, help out in K's as well. Even if you can't use him every time out, 15 starts in Petco, a couple in Dodger stadium, a couple at AT&T park and a few more non-division road games in pitcher's parks is a solid contribution.

Polanco, on the other hand, is hardly a world-beater at 2B. He has 2 HR so far this year, but had only 6 last year and has seen double digits just once since 2004. He hasn't broken 7 steals since 2003, although he should provide good average.

So you've got a high-upside SP swapped for a middling MI.

But there is some context to consider. First, looking at Eno's team, he has a number of starters ahead of Harang (Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Ricky Romero, Jaime Garcia, John Danks, Wandy Rodriguez) and a couple guys (Erik Bedard, Derek Holland) who could provide value as well. Suddenly, losing Harang doesn't seem like a big deal. On the other side, Eno has been abysmal when it comes to batting average and his MI to date has been okay at best (Prado has been fine at 2B, but Andrus is hitting under .240 and Ryan Raburn has been just brutal). And he has no other MI on his roster.

Andy has Cano and Uggla at 2B and MI, meaning Polanco has no shot to crack his lineup. So he gave up a pure bench piece and added a nice part to a rotation that has struggled a bit (Liriano, Gallardo, Ervin Santana, Max Scherzer and Chad Billingsley make up his top five).

All in all, this seems like a perfect win-win trade - both teams gave up a relatively unimportant piece and got one with the potential to help out.

But, as I mentioned at the beginning, I ALMOST played a role in this deal. Prior to finalizing the deal with Andy, Eno and I were discussing a deal that would send Matt Laporta ($2) to my team for Alcides Escobar ($5). From my perspective, this would have been a big help - Escobar is one of five decent-to-solid MI on my team (Asdrubal Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson and Freddy Sanchez are the others) not counting Chase Utley. But my 1B and Util situations are ugly (Carlos Pena and Jim Thome) and I could use OF reinforcements as well.

But, from Eno's perspective, Alcides is $4 more than Polanco and Laporta is probably of more use to him than Harang. I could argue that Alcides has more upside and will provide much more speed, but I am not sure I would disagree with Eno's decision, regardless.

When to Sell

Three days ago I sent this tweet:

how early is too early for a firesale? my team in original #ottoneu is REALLY struggling...

Today, @ottoneu sent this:

When does it make sense to start thinking about building for next season rather than going trying to win now?

Between us we have heard back from two people - a fellow original ottoneu owner told me it's never too early (although he just wants me to start selling so he can start buying) and an owner who has a sale already underway. Not a ton of help yet, so I figured I would take a close look at two things:

1. What criteria should an ottoneu team meet to qualify for a firesale?
2. Does my team in the original ottoneu meet those criteria?

Luckily, my team in the FanGraphs Experts League is definitely not in firesale mode - a few solid days have put me in 5th place (I'll try to have a recap of that league in full next week) - but my original ottoneu team is a disaster so far.

Looking at what qualifies you for a firesale, the first (and most obvious) criteria is that your team can't be in the top 5-6 spots when you start the firesale. For example, Gerbils on Speed in original ottoneu came into the season already with one eye on 2012, although he did hope to succeed in 2011. That team currently sits in first place and the owner is now feeling a bit of a pinch - he doesn't want to hold his pricey stars (Lincecum at $58, Hanley at $57, Miggy at $52 and more) and finish out of the money (4th). But he also doesn't want to sell off those guys when he has a shot to win. 

This can actually be a rather difficult position to be in. When you feel confident your team can't keep up its current performance, you want to think about trading away unkeepable pieces. But, then again the WORST thing you can do is quit on a team that has a shot to win a championship. 

I found myself in this position in 2009, and sold later than I wanted. The result was a partial rebuild - good enough to build up a team for 2010, but not a team that could win. Had I not landed Jose Bautista in an early-season auction, I likely would have found myself just as in-between in 2010.

So, now that we have established you can't sell if you are in the first division, the next question is what makes a team placed 7th - 12th a candidate for a firesale, and the criteria I would focus on here, particularly this early in the season, is that you can't be riding a significant number of unlucky streaks. If you have a few bats and a couple arms that are all facing some bad luck (odd batted ball numbers, BABIPs way out of line, etc.) it can throw things off a lot. If you have a few guys who are performing below expectation and you have good reason to think they will bounce back in the coming weeks, selling now could cost you a shot to climb back into contention.

For example, in the Experts League, I am struggling in SB, but two of the guys I bought for SB potential - Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis - have really underperformed. Borbon yet to steal a base and Davis is on the DL. But there is no reason to think at least one of these guys won't provide me a boost on the base paths. Even if that team were not top five, I would hate to sell when the team hasn't had a full chance to perform as it can.

The final criteria to qualify for a firesale is that you shouldn't be waiting on a boost in talent that can be expected shortly. If you are struggling on offense but have a couple top bats in AAA that are due up soon, you might want to see what they can do. If you have Johan Santana or another injured pitcher due back soon, don't forget that you have 100 ace-level innings and overstate the trouble your pitching is having in the early going.

That leaves us three criteria on which to judge whether you are ready to start a firesale:

1. You are outside the top 6
2. You have had average-to-good luck
3. You don't have a performance booster coming in shortly

With that, let me apply these criteria to my team in original ottoneu. The first is a breeze - even if you want to argue that in mid-April, top 6 is too strict a criteria to apply, the Freeport Pretzels are in 12th place, 1.5 out of 11th and 8.5 out of 10th. And this is a 4x4 league, so points are at a greater premium than in traditional 5x5 leagues.

As for the second, without diving too deep, I tried to divide my offense and pitching into categories of over vs. under performing. Let's start with the offense and begin with guys performing as expected:

• Miguel Tejada (.308 OBP/.429 SLG, 1 HR, 4 R)*
• Marlon Byrd (.351/.436, 0, 10)
• B.J. Upton (.346/.457, 2, 8)

You can argue that Upton is overachieving, but I think this is a reasonable line from him. As for the over-performers:

• Miguel Montero (.511/.711, 2, 8)
• Paul Konerko (.407/.529, 3, 8)
• Jose Bautista (.510/.595, 3, 9)
• Ryan Zimmerman (.487/.536, 1, 5)

Zimmerman and Konerko you can argue with (Konerko cause he may actually be close to that good, Zimmerman cause he has been hurt so his counting stats are low), but I don't think Bautista will continue to get on base 51% of the time, nor do I think Montero will slug over .700 all year. Finally, the guys who are not meeting expectations:

• Martin Prado (.276/.411, 1, 7)
• Luke Scott (.357/.304, 0, 3)
• Hunter Pence (.344/.429, 1, 3)
• Justin Morneau (.269/.327, 0, 4)
• Jim Thome (.294/.367, 1, 4)
• Raul Ibanez (.304/.333, 1, 9)

So this is the longest list so far, but there are some real concerns here. Morneau may still be feeling the impact of his concussion, Thome may have finally remembered how old he is, Ibanez may be done. Pence may not be under-performing, to be honest. So while I think these guys have been below expectations, I am not sure they are as far below as Montero and Bautista are above. Finally, let's take a look at the "wild-cards" I have been using - guys who I wasn't sure what to expect from but was hoping to get real value from:

• Brad Emaus (.294/.200, 0, 2)
• Matt Joyce (.342/.378, 0, 3)
• J.J. Hardy (.294/.400, 0, 4)
• Brent Morel (.244/.296, 0, 6)

Not one of these guys has done what I hoped and my concern is that I have no reason to believe they WILL do what I hoped in the future. Joyce is the most likely to turn it around (he may have actually already started that process), but the others may be a lost cause.

All in all, I think the offense meets the second critera - I don't think I have had particularly bad luck. Yes, I do think I have been unlucky in that the guys I needed to break out have basically all flopped, but I don't see any reason to think that a simple turn in luck/regression to the mean/return to averages will result in a big climb on offense.

Next, let's turn to the pitchers. The guys performing as expected:

• C.J. Wilson (3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9, 12 K in 19.1 IP)
• Heath Bell (1.50, 1.00, 0.00, 2 in 6)

Short list, eh? Both guys will give up HR at some point, and Bell will get more K's eventually, but in terms of overall value, these guys are what we thought they were. The list of over-achievers in my pitching staff is equally short:

• Jered Weaver (1.30, .78, 0.65, 31 in 27.2)
• Josh Beckett (2.08, .92, 0.00, 14 in 13)

Not much to say here. Weaver is legit but can't keep THAT up. Beckett may have bounced back, but the chance of injury and his track record from 2010 make me awfully nervous. As for the long list of guys who have under-performed to date:

• Chad Billingsley (7.71, 1.71, 1.29, 13 in 14)
• Carlos Zambrano (6.11, 1.59, 1.53, 13 in 17.2)
• Matt Garza (6.27, 1.71, 0.00, 25 in 18.2)
• Clay Buchholz (6.60, 1.73, 3, 8 in 15)
• Takashi Saito (9.00, 2.50, 9.00, 3 in 2)
• Matt Thornton (7.71, 3.21, 1.93, 3 in 4.2)
• Rafael Soriano (7.71, 1.50, 0.00, 4 in 4.2)
• Rafael Betancourt (4.05, 1.05, 2.70, 7, 6.2)

If it weren't for Betancourt (who would belong in the "as expected" list if not for the 2.70 HR/9) the ERA's here would all be above 6 and the WHIPs all above 1.5. That is actually good news as every single one of these guys is basically 100% guaranteed to improve. The problem is I don't know that these guys can bounce back enough. Zambrano is a bit of a wildcard, Garza has actually pitched incredibly well and been very unlucky, but he isn't going to strike out almost 1.5 guys an inning the rest of the way. And relievers are always a crap shoot.

That said, overall, my pitching has some hope. I feel good about the ability for my pitching to pitch as expected the rest of the way. The issue is that I never expected to have a top 3 staff - I thought I would have the 5th or 6th best staff and that would be enough to keep a good offense in the money. But unless they turn around FAST, I will end up with five months of a top 6 staff which, when averaged with a dead last pitching staff is probably not enough to get into the top 3 overall.

As for the second criteria as a whole - I think my pitching can rebound, but not sure how much. I think my offense kind of is what it is. And combined, that is not a team I expected to climb into the money.

Finally, let's look at the third criteria: the presence of guys who could provide a spark but haven't played yet:

• Chase Utley
• Scott Sizemore
• Chris Carter
• Brandon Allen

A couple things to note here - first, there are no pitchers. Other than the Indians rushing Pomeranz or the Tigers bringing up Andy Oliver, I have no pitching help coming, unless I make some trades or find a gem on the FA market. Utley is clearly the biggest piece here, but really, I am not sure I see anything to write home about. All in all, I think I will get a nice boost at MI, but not nice enough to overcome my shortcomings elsewhere.  

Having said that, I think there is a big caveat to this: I have, based on two weeks of stats, more or less written off Emaus, Joyce, Hardy, and Morel, assumed Ibanez to be done, Morneau to be still concussed, Thome to be done, Prado to have fallen off for the year, etc. And those are some drastic assumptions to make just two weeks in. If those guys return to form or produce like I think they can, suddenly Utley and maybe a bump from Carter or Allen goes a long long way. Honestly, that is not far from the roster I ended last season with, minus a couple SP who I could get via trade if I need to. And I won the league last year.

Based on that, I think my best bet is to hold on a couple weeks, at least, and see where I am then - and to reconsider each of the three criteria above. Of course someone could blow me away with an offer. There are some guys I really like (Hosmer, Moustakas, Trout, Teheran, Turner, among others) and the right package including some guys like that could convince me that now is the right time to sell.

*Stats as of the start of 4/16