Thursday, April 7, 2011

Roster Breakdown

It has been almost a week since the FanGraphs Experts League Auction, and I haven't had a chance to give you a full run-down of who I bought and what I think of my roster, so here is a position-by-position breakdown:

Brian McCann - $33
Jesus Montero - $13
J.P. Arencibia - $3
Jake Fox - $2

So I may have gone overboard at catcher. McCann is a star and well-worth the $33, and I was surprised to get Montero for only $13 and Arencibia for only $3. I should be well-stocked here for years to come and I will likely look to trade McCann once Montero gets the call. Fox, by the way, is purely a utility guy for me - for $2 he can catch, play first or play OF, and was well worth a flyer. Once I move McCann, he'll be nice insurance.

Carlos Pena - $8
Eric Hosmer - $5
Jim Thome - $1 (Util only)

Carlos Pena may not be a star, but $8? And why does everyone say that Garza going from the AL East to the NL Central is counteracted by his moving to homer-friendly Wrigley...but NO ONE mentions that the same transition should give Pena a shot to hit for a ton of power this year? I expect close to 4 HR/$ from Pena. And that is value. No reason to think he and Hosmer won't both be starting for my team before long, considering Thome doesn't play enough to really fill my util slot.

Chase Utley - $10
Orlando Hudson - $2
Marco Scutaro - $2
Freddy Sanchez - $1

Utley may not play a single game this year and I am thrilled to pay him $10 for the option to hold him at $12 for 2012. If he comes back in the next couple months - well that is even better. In the meantime...yuck. And this is one spot where I don't make up for a lack of talent with some legit youth. That move with McCann I mentioned? Likely will have to be for a MI.

Asdrubal Cabrera - $6
Alcides Escobar - $5
Manuel Machado - $1

Machado will be awfully nice for $3 in two years. But clearly not helpful any time soon. I actually think Asdrubal will be a solid starter this year, but Escobar I am not that excited about. If Utley doesn't come back, Cabrera plus two of Sanchez, Escobar, Scutaro, and Hudson is not going to make for a fun MI and I don't have any ready youth here either. Hopefully Cabrera proves worth the investment and Utley comes back. If that happens, I may be onto something here.

Pablo Sandoval - $24
Mike Moustakas - $4

Another position where depth is a real issue for me, and I am NOT a fan of Sandoval. The more time I spend on this breakdown, the more I am thinking 2012 needs to come quickly. Moustakas at $4 is a steal, though. Everyone in this league will come to regret that I came away with that steal.

Matt Holliday - $38
Alex Rios - $25
Hunter Pence - $24
Vladimir Guerrero - $17
Rajai Davis - $12
Domonic Brown - $8
Carlos Lee - $7
Julio Borbon - $2
Chris Carter - $1

Injuries are again a concern here - Brown is out for a while, Holliday will likely miss April, but I like what I have here. Vlad's OF eligibility makes a big difference and I see no reason to think he won't be well worth that $17 this year. Personally, I think I got Brown at a discount due to the injury, but considering his long-term value, I am extremely happy with him. The problem here for me is that my OF is likely not good enough to win nor is it young enough to be of long-term value. Holliday is extremely keepable at $40 next year, but I am more likely to move him for young talent before too late in the season. Vlad is also likely to be traded (don't need to be tied to him for $19 at DH only in 2012) and Rios could be movable too, although I would be fine holding him for another year.

Roy Halladay - $43
Jered Weaver - $26
Jeremy Hellickson - $13
Shaun Marcum - $10
Ryan Dempster - $6
Julio Teheran - $4
Jair Jurrjens - $2
John Lamb - $1
Clayton Richard - $1
Drew Pomeranz - $1

For starters, Pom is probably little more than a homer pick, but I am a-ok with that. I think he has legit upside and why not hold an Indians prospect for a buck? I think starting pitching is going to be a strength now, though. VERY happy with those four as my top 4, but I am a bit nervous with the depth. Looking to the future, though, only Halladay is even in my consideration set to trade now - Weaver, Hellickson, Marcum should be a solid trio in 2011, 2012 and hopefully beyond.

Neftali Feliz - $21
Jonathan Broxton - $14
Kyle Farnsworth - $2
Evan Meek - $1
Hong Chih Kuo - $1

Not fun. Meek and Broxton have already looked weak, Feliz may be an over-pay, Farnsworth I don't even think I want. Kuo is the one guy I am happy with - he should be awfully good and will be a nice handcuff if Broxton doesn't get his act together.

Honestly, after doing this analysis, I am not optimistic about 2011. Not so down on it that I am quitting today, but definitely going to have to be future looking in my moves. Part of this is that I was poorly prepared for the auction, part is that I haven't been in a 5x5 league in so long that playing for Saves, SB, and Wins is just completely foreign to me. SB in particular were an issue - I didn't do a good job valuing speed early in the auction and ended up paying for guys like Borbon, Davis, and Alcides, in the hopes that they will provide the speed I need...but who knows.

But if you look at my potential lineup in 2012, I see a lot of cheap talent and plenty of cap space to buy a couple big stars to round things out.  We'll see how that works out, but it's probably my best shot.

1 comment:

  1. Not bad at all. I really like your SPs, especially the youth near the top. Kuo was an excellent buy as well. My biggest problem with your roster is paying Guerrero $17.

    It's interesting to see how much less top prospects went for in your league then mine (ottoneu classic 4x4). For example, Teheran went for $9 and Machado for $7. Top prospects went for $3-5 higher in my league than yours.

    I also bought Hosmer ($7), Arencibia ($6), and Thome ($5, in a total lapse of judgement).